Two years of Russian invasion in Ukraine and the conflict shows no signs of improving. Peace negotiations through diplomatic means to put a ceasefire have not worked. Putin points out that "Russia is invincible." and based on certain declarations by representatives of NATO member countries about the possibility of using weapons of mass destruction against Russia, he declared that his country is also armed and has some much more modern components than its aggressors and that it will not hesitate to use them to protect its people. (EL PAIS, 2022)
The position presented by the Russian leader leaves us with much to think about: are we on the verge of a nuclear conflict?
It is a worrying issue, mainly because in recent years, global spending on the purchase of nuclear weapons has increased. This is indicated by the report presented by the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), which suggests that in 2023, the United States, Russia, France, India, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan, and the United Kingdom spent a total of 91.4 billion dollars on nuclear weapons, which is equivalent to 173,884 dollars per minute or 2,898 dollars per second. (DW, 2024) Alarming figures if we consider that in recent years conflicts involving these countries have erupted.
A Past That Returns
The ghost of a nuclear crisis, which put the whole world on edge in 1962, the so-called "Cuban Missile Crisis", has returned. During this crisis, the tensions between the USA and the Soviet Union were close to escalating until the nuclear confrontation. Everything started when the USA discovered preparations to install the USSR nuclear missiles in Cuba, considered a threat to her security. After some diplomatic interventions and intense moments, Kennedy and Khrushchev maintained strong positions with firm statements against each other and their nations. Same as Putin and NATO leaders. Finally, the 2 superpowers reached an agreement and the world finally breathe in peace.
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Nowadays, many things have changed. Will we be lucky and will we be able to avoid a nuclear confrontation? Or is chaos approaching? Opinions and doubts vary, and it is quite difficult to predict future actions in a field where uncertainty reigns. However, the possibility exists and that is why the media point out a potential nuclear threat. (Chinchilla, 2022)
What we can be sure of is that the war that has already begun between Russia and NATO is brewing in a pressure cooker at very high temperatures and could break out at any moment.
It is a war that is being experienced on the ground but also in loud voices, with leaders condemning their rival's actions and threatening to act. Getting involved in a security dilemma. The power dynamics and credible threats surrounding this conflict have shaped the response of the actors "If you do this to me, I will do this to you."
Russia and the countries of NATO have become embroiled in a conflict that the world has already experienced before and brings to the scene two concepts that, although they were born in the Cold War, remain important for analyzing the contemporary world: the balance of terror and the theory of deterrence.
Deterrence as a Strategy in this Chess Game
The theory of deterrence gained importance after the Second World War and the imminent arrival of nuclear weapons. It was established as a central resource to maintain security and stability between States and aims to persuade an opponent through a threat not to initiate an action and if it does, there will be devastating consequences. (Slantchev, 2005)
Since the beginning of the conflict, Russia has made its nuclear arsenal evident, and a couple of months ago, Putin approved a new doctrine that allows the use of nuclear power in the event of receiving a conventional attack by a country without weapons of mass destruction that has the support of nuclear power. They make it clear that an intervention by NATO could lead to a catastrophic war. For their part, Ukraine and the NATO bloc have also used deterrence to contain Russia through the deployment of troops and weapons in the Baltic countries.
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Likewise, Joe Biden, the former president of the United States, has pointed out that the use of nuclear weapons within the conflict would be unacceptable for his country and would lead to great consequences. (Gannon, 2022) Reminding the Kremlin that any attempt at expansion could face a unified and decisive response.
However, not all deterrence is military or nuclear. NATO has imposed harsh economic sanctions on Russia to end its aggression. Meanwhile, the territory of the Tsars has used energy as a means of economic deterrence, threatening Europe with cutting off gas supplies. (Race, 2022)
Balance of Terror, A Resource with Inherent Risks
The “balance of terror” was a term also used in the Cold War that tried to describe the paradigm of the time between the nuclear superpowers, the United States and the Soviet Union, and that was used as a tool to preserve international peace.
The race for nuclear weapons production resulted in a balance of power where no antagonist would dare to attack the other because such an initiative would lead to a nuclear war that would lead to the total annihilation of humanity.
As Winston Churchill pointed out, “It may be that, through a process of subtle irony, we may reach a point where security is the child of terror and survival the twin brother of annihilation.” (Chukwu, 2022)
Precisely, the same fears have returned like a shadow to form part of the current situation in the international field. And this principle may be the only barrier preventing open war between two sides: NATO and Russia. However, it has not deterred the war in Ukraine from ceasing, with thousands of lives lost. The reality is that nuclear powers engage in a strategic chess game daily, where miscalculations could lead to direct nuclear confrontations. What would happen if one of the parties involved misinterprets the intentions of the other?
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Reflection
The conflict in Ukraine reminds us that the balance of terror and the theory of deterrence are not relics of a distant past. They are important concepts with limits and risks. Deterrence can prevent large-scale conflicts, but it does not eliminate local wars or the human tragedies they entail.
We live in a world dominated by uncertainty, where leaders face the significant challenge of being super strategic in their actions while exercising caution to avoid chaos.
We must consider that nothing is taken for granted; after World War II, the popular notion in the West was that the Soviet Union would not initiate military aggression against the Allies because it would mean suicide. However, they found the atomic secret and began a brutal arms race.
The reality is that both sides are seeking to dominate the other, to upset the balance of power, and to ensure their own security and interests. While a nuclear war would mean the annihilation of our society, and I believe that both leaders are aware of this, the world and human actions are unpredictable, and anything can happen.
Bibliography
Chinchilla, M. (2022). La amenaza nuclear rusa: El peso de la incertidumbre. Global Affairs. Universidad de Navarra. La amenaza nuclear rusa: El peso de la incertidumbre. https://www.unav.edu/web/global-affairs/la-amenaza-nuclear-rusa-el-peso-de-la-incertidumbre
Chukwu, J. (2022). Balance of Terror: The weaponry for the preservation of International Peace. 3, 523-527.
DW (Director). (2024). Global spending on nuclear weapons soars: Where will it lead? [Broadcast]. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ijCjSEq0Dg
EL PAIS (Director). (2022). Guerra de Ucrania | Putin amenaza a Occidente con usar armamento nuclear [Broadcast]. https://www.bing.com/videos/riverview/relatedvideo?q=frases+de+putin+respecto+al+armamento+nuclear&mid=12D8A8A7343E56F4BB0B12D8A8A7343E56F4BB0B&FORM=VIRE
Gannon, A. (2022). If Russia Goes Nuclear: Three Scenarios for the Ukraine War. Council on Foreing Relations. https://www.cfr.org/article/if-russia-goes-nuclear-three-scenarios-ukraine-war
Race, M. (2022). Rusia y Ucrania: Putin amenaza a Europa con cortar el suministro de gas si no lo pagan en rublos a partir de este viernes. BBC News Mundo. https://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias-internacional-60947787
Slantchev, B. (2005). Lecture 8: Deterrence and Compellence. En Introduction to International Relations. Department of Political Science, University of California.