Syria: What Next?

Miguel García Carretero

3 days ago5 min read

The downfall of al-Assad’s 54-year dictatorial regime in Syria—a historic event—signals the end of one of the longest-standing autocratic dynasties in the modern Arab world. From Hafez al-Assad’s iron grip to Bashar al-Assad’s brutal survival tactics during a decade-long war, Syria’s rule has been synonymous with power maintained through force. Now, as the dust settles, the region and the world watch anxiously: What comes next for Syria?

On January 27th, the EU Foreign Affairs Council decided to begin gradually easing sanctions on Syria to support economic recovery following the toppling of the al-Assad regime. The goal is to provide the new Syrian government with some relief while allowing time to assess whether the new administration under the Islamist group Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) will align with European values. However, EU High Representative Kaja Kallas made it clear that the lifting of sanctions could be reversed "if wrong steps were taken" [1].

Brussels is proceeding cautiously, and rightly so.

While there is hope that Syria may have a chance to pursue a future of peace, stability, and security, the country faces enormous challenges that must not be overlooked.

Humanitarian Assistance

First and foremost, Syria is in urgent need of humanitarian assistance. Ninety percent of the population lives in extreme poverty, lacking access to food, water, hygiene supplies, and other essential necessities. The protracted crisis has devastated critical infrastructure, including health facilities, and caused chronic shortages of medicines, medical equipment, and medical personnel [1]. Nearly half of Syria’s health facilities are either partially or completely non-functional. The recent upheaval has further strained the system, leaving many—particularly women and girls—without access to critical care [2].

Furthermore, Syria remains one of the world's largest displacement crises, with over 13 million people forced from their homes both within and outside the country. As the conflict escalated in late 2024, culminating in opposition forces seizing control in December, an additional 1.1 million people were displaced, with over 620,000 still without stable housing as of early January [1]. Many are living in overcrowded, insecure temporary shelters, facing harsh conditions and an uncertain future.

Photo by Ahmed akacha via Pexels

The international community must step up to provide urgent humanitarian assistance. Although Commissioner Hadja Lahbib visited Syria—the first EU Commissioner visit since the fall of Assad regime – and announced that the European Commission is allocating €235 million in humanitarian aid for Syrians in 2025, supporting food, medical care, shelter, education, and essential services [2], the Union, given its leadership in global humanitarian aid, should take the lead in coordinating relief efforts, ensuring that aid reaches those in need without exacerbating existing political and security concerns.

Syria's Reconstruction

The planned formation of an inclusive government on March 1st is expected to set the stage for the country's reconstruction.

The new administration has vowed to ensure that all ethnic and religious groups are represented, emphasizing that there are no minorities in Syria—only Syrian citizens. If this commitment translates into action, it could help lay the groundwork for national unity and stability.

An essential aspect of this inclusivity is the protection and representation of all minority groups. These communities have historically faced persecution and marginalization, and their full participation in the new government will be critical for ensuring a truly representative and stable Syria.

Their inclusion in governance structures, legal protections, and access to resources must be a priority, as their security is vital for fostering national reconciliation and preventing future conflicts.

Among these minorities, the Alawite community faces particularly grave risks. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) has recorded at least 162 killings targeting Alawites since Assad’s ouster, underscoring the deep-seated sectarian tensions in the country[1]. As a group that has long been associated with the former regime, Alawites are now especially vulnerable to reprisals. Ensuring their safety and participation in Syria's future is not just a matter of justice but a necessity for national reconciliation and long-term stability.

Photo by Ahmed akacha via Pexels

Furthermore, any political transition must respect international commitments, particularly UN Security Council Resolutions 350* and 2254**, which outline the framework for a peaceful resolution to the Syrian conflict. The adherence to these resolutions is essential for establishing a legitimate and lasting political settlement that can guide Syria towards stability and democracy.

External Actors Shaping Syria's Future

The role of Türkiye cannot be ignored in this evolving situation. As a key regional player and host to millions of Syrian refugees, Ankara’s stance will heavily influence Syria’s trajectory. Türkiye has long supported opposition groups and may seek to leverage its influence in shaping the new government’s policies. Meanwhile, the retreat of Iranian and Russian influence from Syria and the region is a positive development. Their decades-long involvement has fueled instability, and their withdrawal presents an opportunity to further isolate their influence while allowing Syria to regain its sovereignty and shape its own future. This geopolitical reality complicates Syria’s transition, as external influences will undoubtedly shape the country’s future.

One of the most pressing concerns is the escalating hostilities in northern Syria; where since the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in December, Turkish forces and their Syrian allies have frequently clashed with Kurdish militants. Türkiye considers the PKK and the YPG to be the same, whereas the United States distinguishes between the two groups. While the U.S. has designated the PKK as a terrorist organization, it has supported the YPG as a key ally in the fight against ISIS in Syria. Türkiye has consistently urged Washington to end its backing of the YPG, hoping that President Trump would reconsider the policies of the Biden administration. Ensuring that tensions do not spiral out of control is crucial, as continued conflict will only hinder Syria’s path to stability. Dialogue and restraint from all parties involved are necessary to prevent further suffering and to support a lasting resolution.

For the EU, engagement with the new Syrian government presents a difficult balancing act. On one hand, there is a moral and strategic imperative to support stability and reconstruction efforts. On the other, providing assistance without ensuring accountability and adherence to human rights could backfire.

If the EU wants to be a key player and not just a payer, the gradual easing of sanctions should be carefully monitored, with clear conditions attached to prevent any backsliding into authoritarianism or extremism.

Photo by Dušan Cvetanović on Unsplash

A crucial and often overlooked player in this new phase is the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, which have significantly increased its influence in the Mediterranean and Middle East. Significantly, Ahmed al-Shaara’s first official trip as newly elected interim president of Syria was to Riad, signaling a shift toward closer relations with the Gulf States. The GCC countries are called to play an essential role in Syria's reconstruction, offering both financial and political support. By engaging with these states, the EU can strategically leverage their resources, not only for Syria’s recovery but also to shift the balance of power in the region. A cooperative effort between the EU and the GCC would reduce the influence of Iran, effectively pushing it toward isolation over time. This would create a more stable environment for Syria, enhancing the prospects of reconstruction while decreasing the influence of destabilizing actors.

Syria stands at a crossroads, with both risks and opportunities ahead. The humanitarian situation remains dire, political uncertainties loom large, and the international community is treading cautiously. The world must remain patient, yet vigilant, in supporting Syria’s path toward recovery and long-term stability.